The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 865 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll Clinton's poll average is 6.2 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the combined PollyVote is 6.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.