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DeSart & Holbrook model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.0%. In comparison, on October 13, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.2% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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