DeSart & Holbrook model in Montana: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton, and 58.1% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.7% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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