DeSart & Holbrook model in California: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 61.9% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will end up with 38.1%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 60.3% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.