DeSart & Holbrook model: Clinton tied with Trump in North Carolina

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to obtain 50.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.6% and Trump 50.4% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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