Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced. The poll asked respondents from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.