Clinton leads in New Hampshire by 5 points in latest WBUR/MassINC poll

Results of a new poll administered by WBUR/MassINC were published. The poll asked respondents from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 501 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton currently runs at 52.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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