Results of a new poll administered by WBUR/MassINC were published. The poll asked respondents from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 501 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire.