Results of a new poll carried out by KABC/SurveyUSA were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from California for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28 with 732 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.