In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will end up with 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump.
Looking at the component methods
Polly's component methods widely agree on who is ahead: Five forecast a victory for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.0%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton. With a vote share of 57.2% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 13.4 percentage points.
Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 52.4% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 53.8% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.