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Wisconsin: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump in Wisconsin. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 55.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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