Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 4 among 1102 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Wisconsin. This value is 1 percentage point lower than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.