PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 30.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between April 29 and May 1. The sample size was 1201 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.0 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.