Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 25 to September 26, among a random sample of 700 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Washington has Clinton at 59.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 5.4 percentage points higher. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.