Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 59.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. Compared to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.1 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, Polly's forecast is 6.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.