KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 29 to October 3 with 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, the PollyVote is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.