The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 44.3% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will win 55.7%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 55.7% of the vote.
Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.