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Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, and 46.3% for Trump in Virginia.

Historically, Virginia has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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