The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Vermont, while Trump will win 45.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 45.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.2% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 10.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Vermont.