Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who answered the question, 33.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 19 and October 2. The sample size was 1000 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.