UtahPolicy/Dan Jones released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
Of those who answered the question, 24.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 1 and September 9. The sample size was 605 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 38.1% for Clinton and 61.9% for Trump. On April 5 Clinton obtained 50.0% in the UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll and Trump obtained only 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Utah polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 60.6%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.