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Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 35.5% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will end up with 64.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 61.6% of the two-party vote in Utah. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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