Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 9 and October 11. The sample size was 2171 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.1 points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. For comparison: Only 44.7% was gained by Clinton in the Remington Research (R) poll on September 2, for Trump this number was 55.3%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Missouri polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.7%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.