The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.8% of the two-party vote share in Tennessee, while Trump will win 52.2%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 52.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Tennessee.