The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 46.6% for Clinton, and 53.4% for Trump in South Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 53.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in South Carolina. This value is 53.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.5 percentage points higher.