The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 46.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 0.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 53.5 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points higher.