The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.