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Pennsylvania: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to gain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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