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Oregon: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.9% for Clinton, and 46.1% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Oregon.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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