OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.