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Ohio: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Monmouth poll

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Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Monmouth poll results
44

Clinton

42

Trump

The results show that 44.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 4 among 405 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. On August 21 Clinton obtained only 47.6% in the Monmouth poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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