Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 4 among 405 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. On August 21 Clinton obtained only 47.6% in the Monmouth poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.