Ohio: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, and 48.4% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on September 30 Trump was still predicted to gain 48.7% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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