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Ohio: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new PPP (D) poll

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PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

In Ohio, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

PPP (D) poll results
48

Clinton

47

Trump

Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 5 to October 6 among 782 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. For comparison: Only 50.0% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on July 24, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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