The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.2% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, whereas Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 52.2 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.9% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points lower.