New Hampshire: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will end up with 46.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 45.9% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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