New FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*FOX 2* poll in Michigan: Trump trails by a steady margin
By FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 11 and October 11. The sample size was 1429 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.
