Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.2% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.