The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win only 48.5% of the vote.
In Nevada, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, because they may include substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Nevada has Clinton at 0.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 51.5 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.