Nevada: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump in Nevada.

Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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