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Nebraska: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 41.6% for Clinton, and 58.4% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 0.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nebraska. This value is 58.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in Nebraska. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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