Missouri: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.2% for Clinton, and 52.8% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 52.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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