Middle Tn. State Univ.Middle Tn. State Univ. published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Middle Tn. State Univ.Middle Tn. State Univ. Poll results
The results show that 40.0% of participants said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 28 and October 2. The sample size was 472 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-5.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 44.4% for Clinton and 55.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's prediction is 5.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.