Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 5.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.