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Louisiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.8% for Clinton, and 53.2% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 53.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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