LorasLoras published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
LorasLoras poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 5. A total of 500 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Wisconsin. Relative to her numbers in the LorasLoras poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.