Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 11, among a random sample of 533 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 51.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. In comparison to her numbers in the Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy poll Clinton's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Florida. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.