The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 43.8% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, while Trump will end up with 56.2%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they often include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 0.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. This value is 56.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Kansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.