Jerome model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.0% for Clinton, and 47.0% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 47.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 5.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Washington.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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