The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 44.4% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 55.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 55.7% of the vote.
In Virginia, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.