Jerome model in Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 44.4% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 55.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 55.7% of the vote.

In Virginia, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 8.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.