The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will end up with 53.2%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 0.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Texas. This value is 53.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Texas. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Texas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.3 percentage points higher.