The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, whereas Trump will win 53.2%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 55.8% of the two-party vote in Texas. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Texas.