Jerome model in Rhode Island: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 61.7% for Clinton, and 38.3% for Trump in Rhode Island. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 60.1% of the two-party vote in Rhode Island. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Rhode Island.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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